昨日書いた「ITっぽいもの考察」ですが、多言語化させることでどれくらいの市場にアプローチできるか考察しようと思いつき、とりあえず言語の話者数とそれに関連する国や地域のGDPを比べてみた。
「これからは多言語化だぜ！」と煽りっぱなしもよくないな、という反省もある。
それでこれが実際にやってみると正確な統計数字なんて取れない。ただ、人口やら言語に関して正確な統計数字を取るよりも、ザックリ＆漠然とスケール感を掴む方が大事なので正確性が犠牲になりました。
調査方法としてはwikipedexiaの「ネイティブスピーカーの数が多い言語の一覧」で上位30言語を調べ、国や地域で分かる範囲で一人当たりGDPを求め（年度は国によってバラバラ）それに話者数をかけ算しただけです。それでひとまずできたのが以下の表；
「GDP比」というのはそれぞれの言語別のGDPと2009年の世界のGDP（約58兆億ドル）に占める割合です。元データにwikipedia使っているので各国のGDPの年度はバラバラ（概ね2007年か2008年だが国によっては例外もあり）。また、ピンク色の言語（国）に関しては集計上正確性が犠牲になっているのだがその中でもデータとしてかなり曖昧。結局全体的に抽象的なデータとなってしまった。
ピンク色に関して。実は人口が多い国ほど言語がバラバラです。中国は「中国語」と記載していますがこれもインド同様かなり種類があります。また、「インドネシア語」と記載していますがこれは便宜上修正しています。インドネシアという国も複数言語が入り組んでおり、ジャワ島はジャワ語だし、西部はスンダ語だったり。。。
タミル語はインドのポンディシェリ（人口不明）で話されているのですが歴史的な背景でフランス語と英語も使われているそうです。また、インドでは連邦の準公用語が英語だったりと複雑きわまりない（公用語はヒンディー語）。
また、表に関してダブルカウントされています。理由は国によっては公用語が四つあったりします。何語を何%が使っているかということを調べる術もなく、そのままダブルカウントしました。むしろ単一言語の国の方がレアです。上位30言語でこの複雑さ。正確なマーケットを把握するのは簡単ではない。私が半日で分かるようなものではない。
－－－
それでは上位5つくらいをザックリ眺めてみましょう。
●1位：英語（世界GDPカバー率ザックリ44%）
結局多言語化する上で最優先となるのはやはり「英語」。ダントツです。英語を使うことによって世界経済の40%位のマーケットに「理論上参加」できる。
市場規模は日本語の4倍です。子供が生まれたらとりあえずインターナショナルスクールに入れましょう。日本語は家で覚えれば良いのです。今の日本は日本語話せなくても生きていけます。日本語は捨てさせましょう。そうすることで閉塞感漂う日本から逃げ出せる可能性が生まれます。
子供に日本から逃げるチャンスを与えるのも親の役目、そんな時代になるかも知れません。
●2位：中国語（世界GDPカバー率ザックリ15%）
「中国語」と言っても複数あります。そりゃ方言もあるでしょう。現存する世界最古の言語だそうです。七大方言だの十大方言だのあるようです、さっぱり分かりません。もしあなたが30代後半でこれから中国語をマスターしようと思っているならちょっと待ってください！無駄な努力をしてはいけません！
恐らくこれからあなたが会う中国人は日本語か英語は話せます。
そもそも人口の「分母」が違うのです。日本語、もしくは英語を使いこなす中国人は少なく見積もっても数百万人いるでしょう。もし、あなたが中国で仕事をするにしてもそういう人たちを介して仕事をする確率の方が高いのです。無理する必要なし。
ただし、家電量販店で接客するなら必要です。
●3位：スペイン語（世界GDPカバー率ザックリ9.5%）
スペイン語を使いこなせば「南米マスター」になれます。もしかしたら麻薬王になれるかも知れません。メキシコでテキーラ、コスタリカで野生動物鑑賞なんかも良いです。また、やはりスペインも捨てがたい。シェリー酒飲みまくれます。
旅行好きならスペイン語！
●4位：フランス語（世界GDPカバー率ザックリ8%）
フランス語はザックリ4億人程度が母語としています。また、フランスという国は「海外領」が多い。ニューカレドニアなどを始めエリアに関係なく使える国は意外と多い。
スペイン語とフランス語は旅行者向きの言語ですね。
●5位：日本語」（世界GDPカバー率ザックリ7.5%）
日本という国は「島国で閉鎖的だ」と自虐的に言われているが、世界的に見て単独の国で単一の言語（方言はありますが）というのは日本しかないと言って過言ではない。また、日本において日本語は「公用語」ではなく慣例上そうなっているのである。他国は大抵法律で決められているがこれまた意外（ただし、裁判所法74条は「裁判所では、日本語を用いる。」と定めている）。
世界の先進国の中で多言語化していないのは日本くらい。それにも関わらず日本語は世界で5番目くらいの経済活動をしている言語ということが言える。不景気とか言っている場合じゃない。
－－－
こうしてみると自社のサービスがどの言語と親和性が高いか、どの地域、文化だと受け入れられるか、いろいろと考える余地が生まれる。
そして、ITサービス、特にSNSに限定して言うならば事業の収益源を；
・ユーザー課金
・広告モデル
この2つのどちらに注力するかで戦略が変わる。実際各社両方でマネタイズしているけども同時進行させるには相当な資金力が必要。ユーザー課金なら購買力を持つ言語、一人当たりGDPの大きな言語を狙うべきだし、広告モデルなら話者数の多い言語を選ぶべきだろう。
というか全く当たり前の話で面白くもなんともない。
「海外事業」とか言う割にこの辺考えていないIT企業は多い。ソフトバンクですら「世界、世界」と言っているが所詮国内市場のみだしね。
そう考えると実は日本のITサービスなんて全然世界に進出していないのよね。
facebookが世界に6億人の登録者数を持っていると言われているが、「技術レベル」で言うと日本のSNS各社が持つ技術とさほど変わらない。違いは対応言語の数くらいじゃなかろうかと。
少なからず今日本で使っているITサービスのほとんどがアメリカのものだし、そうしたサービスはご多分に漏れず「多言語対応」している。逆にそれ以外にそうしたサービスで競争優位となりえる要因はない。ゲームが面白いと言ったって所詮一過性のもの。
昨日も書いたけど、新規事業だのM&Aが本質的な戦略として有効だとは思えん。
「世界進出」などという大それたことじゃなく、自社のサービスを他の言語に翻訳するだけなので実質的なコストは新規事業だのM&Aだのよりは全然安いのにね。
まぁ、ザックリと参考になれば。
※データに関してかなり正確性が犠牲になっているのであまり細かく突っ込まないように。
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